Analysis of the turnout between the eastern and western wards (wards 1,2,3,4 vs. wards 5,6,7) showed that the turnout was almost identical (36,645 for the eastern wards vs. 36,818 for the western wards; difference of 173). The percent turnout was 36% for the east vs. 33% for the west. The reason for this is that the western wards have a larger number of registered voters (112,414 vs. 101,956; difference 10,458).
A statistical analysis of the primary results was performed to understand the effect of turnout. Correlations of percent turnout and percent of votes cast for each of the candidates showed that there is no relationship between turnout and the percent of votes received for any of the candidates. In other words, precincts that had a higher turnout did not favor one candidate over the other. A ward-by-ward analysis showed that there was there is no relationship between turnout in the eastern wards and the percentage of votes for Daub or Council. Some relationship exists between turnout in ward 5, 6 and 7 and the percent of voters for Daub. This also means that precincts in these ward that had a low voter turnout lean slightly more toward Council. However, the correlation here is not very high and so that a greater turnout will not change the percentage results a great deal.
Support for Council was the most uneven of the three candidates. She received 18,187 votes in the east (wards 1,2,3,4) but only 7,892 in the west (wards 5,6,7). Daub voters numbered 11,234 in the east and 17,787 in the west. Probably the most striking aspect of the primary election is the low support for Daub in Ward 2. He received only 10.6% of the vote in this ward. In contrast, Council received 21.4% of the vote in wards 5, 6 and 7. Council seems to cross racial lines better than Daub.
The key to the upcoming election is obviously the Lamberty vote (white, slightly more conservative democrats). In percentage terms, Lamberty did best in ward 4 (27.49%). In terms of number of voters, however, he did best in ward 6 (2910 vs. 2605 for ward 4). The reason for this difference is that there are more voters in ward 6. If we go on to compare the east-Omaha wards (1,2,3,4) vs. the west-Omaha wards (5,6,7), we find that Lamberty received 6857 votes in the east vs. 7892 in the west, a difference of over 1000 votes. The reason that Lamberty did more poorly in the eastern wards is that Council had strong support in wards 1, 2, and 3.
To predict the outcome of the upcoming election, one would have to understand
how the people who voted for Lamberty intend to vote. In the 1994 election
between Daub and Council, these areas (wards 4 as well as 5,6 and 7) of
the city voted for Daub. In the November 1996 election, there was considerable
support for the republican candidates from areas west of 60th street. This
would include the western parts of ward 4 and ward 1. Even if Council is
able to win these precincts, her support must cross 72nd street, particularly
the northern parts of ward 7, if she is to win the election.
