Environmental Geology lecture outline - Earthquake prediction

A successful prediction vs. a successful track record.

The interesting case history of the Jupiter effect, Iben Browning and the 1990 prediction.

Components/types of predictions:

Future location and size of earthquakes (neglecting time component):

Estimation of recurrence interval:

Prediction based on dilatancy hardening theory and the use of precursors.

Cost of a precursor monitoring program?


H.D. Maher Jr., 3/2/98

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