Map of Morocco at http://www.sas.upenn.edu/African_Studies/CIA_Maps/Morocco_19858.gif. from Univ. of Pennsylvania African Studies Center.

Basic traits:

• Constitutional monarchy.
• Diverse ethnically (Berbers a significant minority).
• Classified as a developing nation.
• Mediterannean along coast, arid in interior, especially in south.
• Topographically and geologically diverse.
• Mixed economy, but 40% of population in agricultural sector.
• Collection of photos of country.

Is there a need?

Population: 31,689,265 (July 2003 est.). Population growth rate 1.64% (2003 est.). This ranks 88 out of 235 countries, and is similar to countries such as Columbia, Bolivia, and Algeria.

"In 2003, Morocco's real GDP increased an estimated 5.2%. Morocco's economy grew especially rapidly in 2003 because of ample rainfall. The disproportionate importance of the agricultural sector, which employs 43% of the population, makes Morocco's economy vulnerable to external shocks, like extremely good (or bad) weather. The expected return of normal weather patterns has led to forecasted GDP growth of 3.5% in 2004." Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/morocco.html

"According to January 2004 estimates, Morocco has proven oil reserves of 1.6 million barrels and gas reserves of 43 billion cubic feet (Bcf). Morocco may have additional hydrocarbon reserves, as many of the country's sedimentary basins -- especially those offshore on the Atlantic continental shelf or in deep waters off the shelf -- have not been explored." Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/morocco.html

"The vast majority of Morocco's electricity is generated in thermal power plants that burn oil and coal. All of the oil is imported, and most of the coal comes from South Africa (the United States and Columbia are also key suppliers). Morocco produces a small and declining amount of coal from a mine at Jerada." Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/morocco.html

Water is a particular scarce resource. It is classified as a 'water-stressed' country. Nuclear power has been sought for a significant time in order to provide the energy for a desalinization plant.

Summary: The following indicates need exists: a) ongoing population and economic growth, b) only modest oil/gas reserves and a dependence on exports for energy minerals, and c) a need for water.

Basic requirements for nuclear power:

• source of Uranium fuel.
• appropriate sites for nuclear power plant.
• appropriate sites for waste disposal.
• technologic know-how to support nuclear power.

1) Is there a source of Uranium fuel?

• Haute Moulouya one site where Uranium deposits known to exist.
• Type of geology indicates prospects for more such deposits high.

2) Appropriate sites for nuclear power plant.

• site would likely be coastal (where population density is, also for purposes of desalinization).
• would have to evaluate specific risk factors (see section below).

3) Appropriate sites for waste disposal?

• dry-arid inland area, with a diversity of geology and rock types suggests appropriate sites should exist.
• low population density in parts of interior also favorable factor.
• need to be careful to avoid areas of flooding.

4) Technologic know-how to support nuclear power?

• Morocco is acquring experience with a research reactor at present.
  • From U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.PROPOSED RENEWAL OF THE SECTION 123 AGREEMENT FOR PEACEFUL NUCLEAR COOPERATION WITH MOROCCO: "In July 2002 the Moroccan National Centre for Nuclear Energy, Sciences and Technology (CNESTEN) is scheduled to operate its first research reactor, a turnkey installation supplied by GA. The reactor is a TRIGA Mark II research reactor with a power level of 2000 kW(t), with the capability of being upgraded to 3,000 kW(t). The reactor will use low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. In addition to the TRIGA research reactor, extensively equipped laboratories and all associated support systems, structures, and supply facilities are also being supplied by GA. The research center will be used for the production of radioisotopes for medical, industrial and environmental uses, metallurgy and chemistry, implementation of nuclear analytical techniques such as neutron activation analysis and non-destructive examination techniques, as well as for carrying out basic research programs in solid state and reactor physics." Source: http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/commission/secys/2001/secy2001-0033/2001-0033scy.html#_1_8
  • Image of reactor site.
• Al Akhawayn University in Ifrane. Has exchange programs with several U.S. universities.

Summary: While more specific investigation would be needed for selection of specific sites, Morocco appears to have the necessary basic requirements. However, technologic know how is in its infancy and outside help would likely be necessary to meet this requirement.

• natural hazards - earthquakes and flooding.
• political stability, accidents, and weapons proliferation.
• legal environment and risk.
• Canary Islands concern about Chinese aided nuclear power plant project in Morocco.

Earthquakes:

• Agadir, Morocco--February 29, 1960 - 12,000 fatalities USGS description.
• 2004 earthquake 6.5 RM killed 564 Source: http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/africa/02/24/morocco.quake/index.html
• USGS report on 2004 earthquake.
• Seismic hazard map for the area. Source: http://geology.about.com/library/bl/maps/blmaghrebwestseismap.htm
• This risk could be partly accommodated by appropriate engineering.

Flooding in 2002 wiped out largest oil refinery. Satellite view of these floods.

Political stability and weapons proliferation?

• Unemployment high (19% in 2002).
• There is a booming drug trade. Worlds largest hashish exporter.
• Present monarchy has wide spread power, has brought stability, and is characterized as a political reformer, but what happens when he dies?
• 2003 May - Forty one people are killed and many are injured in a series of suicide bomb attacks in the business capital Casablanca. Source BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/middle_east/country_profiles/2431365.stm
• Algeria, with much deeper political unrest could 'export' unrest.
• These indices indicate political stability is potentially fragile.

Morocco has signed nuclear non-proliferation and environmental treaties.

Accidents: this is difficult to assess, but is related to the level of technologic expertise. Due to the associated need of external support, operation costs would be initially higher.

Legal risk:

• existing environmental regulation is limited in comparison to the U.S. and other developed nations.
• website describing Morocco's environmental law.

Fuzzy categories of assessed risk: very low = 0, low = 1, moderate = 2, high = 3.

	Japan	Iraq	France	Morocco
Natural Hazards	3	3	1	2
Political Instabiliy	0	3	1	2
Weapons Proliferation	0	3	0	1
Accidents	1	2	0	2